Bitcoin price has clung to lows in the $20,000 region for a long time, showing little or no sign of a strong upside. The market occasionally shows capitulation but is not optimistic about the possibility of a bullish reversal in the coming weeks.
On the surface, many on-chain and macro signs indicate a complete loss of confidence in the market. Digging up deeper into these fundamentals, however, reveals that not everything is so bleak.
Over the past five weeks, the S&P 500 has seen one of its volatile periods more severe than the economic crisis that hit in 1929 and the mid-1970s. Since the start of the year, the index has been on the rise, down 13%.
Other indicators perform equally badly. So far, 2022 has been one of the bad years, with the Dow Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100, and NYSE Composite posting losses of 10%, 19%, and 11%, respectively.
Increased volatility in traditional markets and a deteriorating global socioeconomic outlook have also pushed consumer sentiment to an all-time low.
While Bitcoin’s performance is somewhat similar to that of the traditional market, some on-chain indicators suggest that it may be nearing the end of its capitulation cycle.
One of the best measurements of Bitcoin’s strength has always been the confidence of miners. Regarded as the most resilient player in the crypto-ecosystem, the miner capitulation has always signaled a Bitcoin bottom.
According to data from Glassnode, the current surrender period has lasted two months, namely 61 days. This is the fourth longest surrender period in Bitcoin’s history, with the remaining three being 2021-2019 and 2021.
Data has shown that Bitcoin broke out of a capitulation trend as its entirely-adjusted NUPL rose above zero.