As the United States casts its ballots in the congressional midterm elections, the intraday price movement of bitcoin plunges nearly 4%, dropping below $20,000. Uncertainty over the decision and the potential to wait until December before all seats are filled weighs on the price of BTC (1).
What is to be expected ?
Biden becomes a lame duck since the most likely outcome is a Republican victory in the Senate or the House. Over 4% intraday and 7% overall, including the weekend sell-off, are losses in Bitcoin (BTC) price activity. In the wake of Musk tweeting to vote Republican as Tesla shares plummet, investor sentiment is under even more pressure to predict the outcome of the US midterm elections. In the upcoming days and weeks, the outcome and runoffs are expected to make for a very anxious event with a binary conclusion.
What would a republican victory mean for Bitcoin?
The BTC price movement would favor a Republican landslide victory.
The drop below the $20,000 level in bitcoin price indicates investor trepidation on the outcome of the US midterm elections. Markets favor a Republican majority or a split between the House and the Senate. BTC price action would therefore increase because Biden is a lame-duck president who would be unable to enact meaningful changes, which frequently have a high price tag. Once the count is validated, one of the possibilities above would result in a surge in BTC price movement.
If the Republican Senate gains control of several battleground states, as the findings gradually reveal the outcome, be prepared for a very layered response. Should a narrow Republican majority be observed in the first 48 hours, expect an initial retreat of over $20,000. If one or two swing state Senate seats, like Georgia or Pennsylvania, go to Republicans, the next step will be a leap toward $21,200. In a perfect world, if it turns out that Republicans take both the House and the Senate, $21,969 would enter the picture with a break over the monthly R1 resistance level.
Trump's expected announcement that he would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal poses a risk to the downside that must be considered a bid for office once more in 2024. That may cause many Republican voters to defect to the Democratic Party. By December, BTC price movement would try a low resistance level of $19,036 and maybe break below it to test the waters of $18,000.
