JPMorgan Chase has predicted a 60 percent chance for the next US recession to happen by 2020. In a global market crash, can crypto be a viable solution to existing stores of value?
“The probability of a U.S. recession inside one year is right around 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, as indicated by the note,” Bloomberg reported.
As indicated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, there exists a mere 14.5 percent chance of a recession happening before the end of 2019.
Stephen Stanley, the chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, suggested that 2020 could be considered as a premature period for the next US recession to happen yet he echoed a comparative sentiment to JPMorgan in that while the US economy remains solid with low unemployment rate and a bull market, the danger of a recession in the years to come exists.
Generally, the larger part of economists in the US forecast a recession to happen in the next a few years. David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research director and NABE’s survey chair, disclosed that 66% of business economists in the US expect the market to crash before the end of 2020, for the most part, due to trade issues.
“Trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views,” Altig stated, expressing that trade issues and high-interest rates imposed by the Fed leave US markets vulnerable to a mid-term crash.
Amid a period in which numerous economists forecast a market crash and a noteworthy recession in the next two years, the demand for crypto has increased quickly.
While not portrayed by the prices of significant cryptocurrencies, financial institutions, for example, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have established the infrastructure to target institutional investors intending to invest in the advanced asset market.
Banks and investment firms have prevented from establishing businesses in the cryptocurrency sector due to the absence of regulatory certainty in the market. Experts have stated that the suddenly emerging trend of major financial institutions entering the crypto market suggests the demand for crypto from investors in the traditional finance sector has increased quickly in the previous several months.
As Jim Hamel, portfolio manager at Craftsman Global Opportunities Fund explained, the computerized payments industry has experienced exponential development in recent years, which could normally lead investors to cryptocurrencies.
“There are a number of tailwinds adding to this trend. In the first place, we’re seeing fast development in e-commerce, which requires that customers be able to make secure advanced payments. The development in cross-border transactions and the general effect of an increasingly globalized marketplace are helping accelerate this trend.”
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