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Can Cryptocurrencies be the solution for the 2020 predicted US Recession?

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JPMorgan Chase has predicted a 60 percent chance for the next US recession to happen by 2020. Can crypto be a viable solution to existing stores of value?

JPMorgan Chase has predicted a 60 percent chance for the next US recession to happen by 2020. In a global market crash, can crypto be a viable solution to existing stores of value?

“The probability of a U.S. recession inside one year is right around 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 percent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 percent, as indicated by the note,” Bloomberg reported.

 

Why Do Experts predict a Recession?

As indicated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, there exists a mere 14.5 percent chance of a recession happening before the end of 2019.

Stephen Stanley, the chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, suggested that 2020 could be considered as a premature period for the next US recession to happen yet he echoed a comparative sentiment to JPMorgan in that while the US economy remains solid with low unemployment rate and a bull market, the danger of a recession in the years to come exists.

Generally, the larger part of economists in the US forecast a recession to happen in the next a few years. David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research director and NABE’s survey chair, disclosed that 66% of business economists in the US expect the market to crash before the end of 2020, for the most part, due to trade issues.

“Trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views,” Altig stated, expressing that trade issues and high-interest rates imposed by the Fed leave US markets vulnerable to a mid-term crash.

 

Is Crypto the solution?

Amid a period in which numerous economists forecast a market crash and a noteworthy recession in the next two years, the demand for crypto has increased quickly.

While not portrayed by the prices of significant cryptocurrencies, financial institutions, for example, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have established the infrastructure to target institutional investors intending to invest in the advanced asset market.

Banks and investment firms have prevented from establishing businesses in the cryptocurrency sector due to the absence of regulatory certainty in the market. Experts have stated that the suddenly emerging trend of major financial institutions entering the crypto market suggests the demand for crypto from investors in the traditional finance sector has increased quickly in the previous several months.

As Jim Hamel, portfolio manager at Craftsman Global Opportunities Fund explained, the computerized payments industry has experienced exponential development in recent years, which could normally lead investors to cryptocurrencies.

“There are a number of tailwinds adding to this trend. In the first place, we’re seeing fast development in e-commerce, which requires that customers be able to make secure advanced payments. The development in cross-border transactions and the general effect of an increasingly globalized marketplace are helping accelerate this trend.”

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Cryptocurrency Price Analysis: Great Week for the top 10

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The current week has proved to be quite amazing for the cryptocurrency market as all major coins are holding green. The total cryptocurrency market rose by around $1.5 billion yesterday night with the price of bitcoin reaching $4100.

 

Bitcoin:

BTCUSD Price Chart

BTC/USD Weekly Price Chart

Bitcoin broke the $4000 resistance level on 17th March and has been over this range since then. Bitcoin has turned the previous resistance into strong support now and has moved upwards slowly currently trading around $4120 (according to Bitfinex chart) with around 1% increase in the last 24 hours. If bitcoin is able to maintain its position above $4100 range for long, it might soon move ahead towards the major long term resistances such as $4500 and $4600.

 

Altcoins:

ETHUSD Weekly Chart

ETH/USD Weekly Chart

Ethereum also saw a nice bullish momentum this week after reaching the highest point of $143. Currently, Ethereum is trading nicely around $140 and is experiencing a few dips while trying to move upwards.

Unlike other top 10 coins, Ripple market is experiencing volatility from the last week but the momentum is still quite bullish.

LTCUSD Weekly Chart

LTCUSD Weekly Chart

Litecoin has been following trends and is steadily trading around $60 from the start of the week. Litecoin has increased more than 1.67% in the last 24 hours which makes it the best performing crypto of the day (in comparison with the top 10 cryptos according to market capitalization). LTC is currently trading around $61 (according to Bitfinex chart).

 

The overall cryptocurrency market is in a bullish momentum with sings of further gains. After a long bearish trend, cryptocurrency analysts are now believing that the bull market might be coming soon.

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Tom Lee: Bitcoin Bull Market Coming Soon

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Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global has predicted that the price of bitcoin will likely experience a bullish run in the next 5 to 6 months.

Tom Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat Global also known as the bitcoin bull has predicted that the price of bitcoin will likely experience a bullish run in the next 5 to 6 months. Lee predicted this during an interview with the CNBC. According to Lee, the 200 daily moving average is the number to keep in mind. If bitcoin is able to stay above $4000 till August this year, it will cross the 200 daily moving average and thus technically the overall chart would start to look bullish.

During the interview, he also mentioned that the future of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies lies on the fact of whether it becomes an asset class and bitcoin is still in the early days of becoming one. Although Tom Lee has been quite bullish about the price of bitcoin, Fundstrat had recently posted a warning that the cryptocurrency market might crash to a new bottom before actually starting a bull run.

 

Tom Lee on JP Morgan Coin:

In the interview, Lee also expressed his concerns regarding the recently launched JP Morgan Coin which is a stablecoin launched by the banking giant JP Morgan Chase. He said that things such as the JP Morgan Coin and Facebook Coin create use cases for cryptocurrencies and according to him, the JPM Coin is surely not a competitor to bitcoin as it is a stablecoin in nature.

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Alert: Bitcoin Breaks Record, Highest Hash Rate Since November 2018.

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The hash rate of bitcoin which is the power that secures the bitcoin network has recorded the highest level yesterday (19th March) since last year November.  The Bitcoin hash rate passed over fifty-two quintillion hash per second in accordance with the data feed on Blockchain.com.

 

Bitcoin Hash Rate:

Bitcoin hash rate is the computation of the performance of bitcoin miners. In simpler terms, as the hash rate goes higher, the bitcoin network becomes more secure. It becomes more difficult to attack the bitcoin network as an attacker would need increased resources in order to attack the network. The increasing hash rate also depicts the increase in the number of bitcoin miners. As the BTC mining difficulty level is quite stable now, more and more miners are joining the bitcoin network. Although, the increasing hash rate would eventually result in an increase in the overall difficulty level.

bitcoin hash rate 19th march

Bitcoin hash rate 19th March 2019

 

The bitcoin network security is at its peak since November last year. The highest hash rate ever recorded has been around 62 quintillion hash per second in August last year. Looking at the current chart, it depicts that the hash rate might even cross this level in the coming time.

 

The increased hash rate also builds up confidence in the minds of the miners as it shows the overall security of the bitcoin network and thus predicting a secure future of the investment of the miners. Thus, overall, more and more miners are now joining the bitcoin mining network after a subsequent decrease last year which led to a lot of miners moving out of the mining business. Bitcoin price analysts believe that the hash rate of the network follows the price of bitcoin as it helps them in speculating the future price of BTC.

 

During last year’s bear market, the hash rate also fell drastically which led to a lot of miners shutting down and the mining equipment were being sold at waste prices. Now as the hash rate is rising, miners are again turning on their mining rigs and moving back to business. It is also worth examining that the current hash rate of the network is even more than the recorded hash rate in December 2017 when the price of BTC went up to $20,000.

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