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3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Hitting $38.5K Marked the 'ETF Dip'

Bitcoin's recent dip to $38.5K is attributed to various factors, including ETF flows, NVT signals, and signs of capitulation among long-term holders.

Bitcoin has experienced changing trends in ETF flows following a turbulent first two weeks since the launch of the United States' first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Here are three key factors to consider:

  1. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Outflows: While the ETFs have seen billions of dollars in inflows since their launch on January 11, they have also coincided with a 20% decline in the BTC/USD price. Much of this decline has been attributed to GBTC, as investors who were previously "trapped" in the trust have been able to exit. However, critics argue that this may not be the primary reason for the downward pressure on Bitcoin.
  2. NVT Signal: The Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Signal, an on-chain metric, showed that the value of recent Bitcoin transactions relative to the overall market cap was correspondingly low when BTC price dropped to $38,000. This suggests that the price at that level was unnaturally low, similar to the bear market conditions of 2022.
  3. Capitulation Signs: Even long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin, defined as entities holding for 155 days or more, sent their coins to exchanges at a loss during this week's price lows. This behavior indicates a level of capitulation among both speculators and seasoned hodlers. It's worth noting that this pattern could be a precursor to further capitulation, as seen in previous market cycles.

While these factors provide insights into Bitcoin's recent price movement, the cryptocurrency market remains unpredictable, and caution is advised for both investors and traders.